The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis (or Boom?)

Two pieces making the rounds this week are arguing opposite sides of the same question: what happens to the economy when AI gets really good?

The Crisis case (Citrini Research): AI displaces white-collar workers, who spend less, so companies double down on AI to cut costs further — a negative feedback loop. Meanwhile, AI agents eliminate the friction that entire business models depend on, collapsing SaaS revenues, private credit, insurance structures, and the mortgage market along with them. Government tax receipts crater as labor's share of GDP falls, and political gridlock prevents any meaningful response. Painful and disorderly.

📰 The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis citriniresearch.com

The Boom case (Michael Bloch): AI-driven deflation is actually a wealth transfer to consumers. When tax prep, legal advice, and financial planning get cheap, households pocket the savings — effectively a tax-free raise. SaaS margin compression isn't a bug, it's capital being redeployed toward expansion and hiring. New business formation surges to fill the gap. And historically, technology-driven deflation has consistently raised living standards. The bear case, Bloch argues, mistakes one sector repricing for systemic collapse.

📰 The 2028 Global Intelligence Boom michaelxbloch.substack.com

Mango's take: Doom gets the clicks. Mango gets it. But in Mango's lifespan as a dog, the pattern is pretty consistent: humans adapt, new industries emerge, and the economy muddles through in ways the pessimists who focus on one single variable didn't model. The Crisis piece is a genuinely smart stress test worth reading. But Mango is staying long.